Clearwater Analytics, a technology platform for investment management, has released its 2026 Economic Outlook, titled “The Economy That Still Wants to Hang On.” The outlook introduces the CWAN Duration Activity Index (CDAI), a real-time measure of institutional duration positioning.
The new CDAI indicates that institutions managing over $2 trillion in combined assets are currently in a “neutral” position, neither increasing nor decreasing their duration exposure, coinciding with stabilizing interest rates. The index provides a six-year historical analysis, tracking investment data from insurers, specifically their fixed income holdings and adjustments to duration relative to historical patterns.
Sandeep Sahai, CEO at Clearwater Analytics, stated, “Everyone has an outlook for 2026, but what makes ours different is pairing market commentary with a proprietary database no one else has. We’re looking out at economic trends and looking in at how institutions representing trillions in assets are actually positioning their portfolios.”
The 2026 Outlook challenges prevailing narratives of an impending recession and identifies key shifts in monetary policy, robust credit markets, and ongoing technology investment requirements that are expected to influence the economic cycle through 2026. Key data findings from the report include:
Regarding Federal Reserve Policy, the outlook suggests that despite anticipated rate cuts, policy is unlikely to become accommodative due to persistent price pressures within the U.
S. economy. Clearwater Analytics data shows that corporate treasurers have already reduced cash allocations and extended duration in anticipation of continued, but limited, Fed easing.
The report indicates that long rates have reached a structural floor, with the new CWAN Duration Activity Index showing institutional investors maintaining current duration exposure. An analysis of the 10-year Treasury yield is provided to explain this positioning. The full report details the CDAI methodology and its implications.
Analysis of insurers’ portfolios reveals a consistent shift from public to private credit since 2018, a trend that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the surge in AI investment shows few signs of slowing. Clearwater Analytics data, tracking insurers’ holdings in major AI stocks, indicates institutions increased net purchases in the second half of 2025, despite broader concerns about a market bubble.
Two primary factors are identified as supporting continued U.
S. economic growth through 2026: sustained consumer spending, bolstered by real wage growth, and elevated corporate profits.
Matthew Vegari, Head of Research at Clearwater Analytics, commented, “What makes this outlook unique is that we’re not just forecasting. We are analyzing how institutions are actually positioning their portfolios. While recession fears continue, the economy continues to defy the odds. But the business and investment environment are by no means easy.” The analysis leverages Clearwater Analytics’ platform, which processes over $10 trillion in global assets, offering real-time insights into institutional investor behavior.
Clearwater Analytics (NYSE: CWAN) provides a cloud-native platform for institutional investors across global public and private markets. The platform integrates portfolio management, trading, investment accounting, reconciliation, regulatory reporting, performance, compliance, and risk analytics into a unified system. It serves insurers, asset managers, hedge funds, banks, corporations, and governments globally.
