CoStar, a global provider of online real estate marketplaces, information, and analytics, has issued an updated forecast for the U.

S. multifamily sector, indicating a more conservative outlook for rent growth and vacancy trends extending through 2026.

National apartment rent growth is now anticipated to decrease by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a downward adjustment of 160 basis points from CoStar’s prior projections. Vacancy rates are expected to remain at 8.2% through the end of the year before gradually declining to 7.9% by the close of 2026.

Grant Montgomery, National Director of Multifamily Analytics at CoStar Group, commented on the revised figures, stating, “The revised forecast reflects a more measured view of near-term performance. Still, a turning point is approaching. In the final quarter of 2025, renters are expected to occupy more units than are added to supply — a first since the third quarter of 2021. That shift should allow vacancy to begin receding in 2026, supported by a shrinking construction pipeline and steady renter demand.”

The updated forecast also considers a slowdown in employment growth, population increases, and household formation, which may contribute to slower absorption rates in markets with an abundance of supply. However, the scarcity of available homes for sale continues to bolster multifamily demand, as it keeps many potential buyers in the rental market.