Cotality has released its Home Price Index for March 2026, revealing a modest 0.4% year-over-year increase in U.
S. single-family home prices. This indicates a continued slowdown in growth, with high mortgage rates identified as a primary factor limiting purchasing activity.
Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality’s chief economist, stated, “We’re witnessing a real split in opportunity, as purchases are being limited to those who have enough equity or cash to ignore mortgage rates, which only widens the gap for those trying to get their foot in the door.” She also noted that sellers have maintained asking prices, which have consistently trended more than 2% above closing prices.
Consistent price growth in March 2026 was observed in the Midwest, specifically Illinois (5.7%), and the Northeast, including New Jersey and Connecticut (5.6%). These states also led year-over-year price growth in February 2026. Conversely, areas that saw significant appreciation during the pandemic, such as Austin, TX, and Oakland, CA, experienced a cooling period where prices outpaced affordability, although a rebound in prices is beginning to emerge in 2026.
While 17 states reached new highs in price growth during March 2026, 13 states experienced negative home price appreciation. South Dakota led this trend with a -3.5% decline, followed by Washington, D.
C. (-3.1%) and Florida (-2.4%).
Cotality’s data suggests that the market will continue to rebound over the next year. However, persistent high mortgage rates could temper the anticipated increase in home prices and sales. Recent trends indicate that a drop in mortgage rates would likely stimulate buyer interest and increase activity in the housing market.
Key findings for March 2026 include a 0.4% year-over-year increase in U.
S. single-family home prices compared to March 2025. On a month-over-month basis, home prices also increased by 0.4% from February 2026. Cotality’s forecast projects annual U.
S. home price gains to reach 5.1% year-over-year by March 2027.
Among the country’s 100 largest metro areas, Bridgeport, CT, recorded the highest year-over-year home price increase at 7.9% in March, with Newark, NJ, following at 6.8%. At the state level, Illinois saw the most annual growth, increasing by 5.7%, with New Jersey and Connecticut close behind at 5.6%. Nebraska (5.0%) and Indiana (4.8%) completed the top five states for growth.
Cotality’s Market Risk Indicators identified several top markets at risk for price declines in the next 12 months. These include Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL; Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL; Marietta, GA; and Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville, FL.
According to Cotality’s Market Condition Indicators, 70 of the largest 100 metropolitan areas are currently considered overvalued, meaning their current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by more than 10%. In contrast, 23 metros are classified as normal, and seven are undervalued.
The next Cotality Home Price Index, featuring data for April 2026, is scheduled for release on June 2, 2026. Further housing trends and data are available on the Cotality Insights blog.
The Cotality HPI™ is developed using public record, servicing, and securities real-estate databases, incorporating over 45 years of repeat-sales transactions to analyze home price trends. The index, generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, aims to provide an early indication of home price trends across various market segments and for the Single-Family Combined tier, which includes all sales for single-family attached and detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release to signal turning points more promptly. The HPI measures multiple market segments based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type, and distressed sales, offering coverage from national to ZIP Code levels, including non-disclosure states.
Cotality HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price (a function of real disposable income per capita) with short-run fluctuations influenced by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks such as changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, these forecasts project HPI levels for two tiers: Single-Family Combined and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. Stress-Testing Scenarios, a companion to the forecasts, align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse, and severely adverse conditions at state, metropolitan area, and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy is represented by a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
Market Risk Indicators is a subscription-based analytics solution that delivers monthly updates on the health of housing markets nationwide. Cotality data scientists utilize analytics and detailed economic and housing data to assess the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. This multi-phase regression model provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) for two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction, with higher scores indicating higher risk.
Market Condition Indicators, part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, are available for all metropolitan areas and categorize individual markets as overvalued, at value, or undervalued. These indicators are derived from long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are deemed overvalued if current home price indexes surpass their long-term values by over 10% and undervalued if long-term values exceed index levels by over 10%.
Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem, enabling industry professionals to achieve their goals and impact society. The company leverages billions of real-time data signals throughout a property’s lifecycle to uncover potential risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators.
