Global communications platform Infobip projects over 3.9 billion messages will be exchanged between brands and customers this shopping season, representing a 15% year-on-year increase, fueled by the adoption of AI, mobile commerce, and rich messaging channels for personalized shopping experiences.
The forecast indicates that Rich Communication Services (RCS) will be the fastest-growing channel in 2025, with global volumes projected to rise 161% on Black Friday and 269% on Cyber Monday. SMS is expected to remain the leading retail channel, accounting for nearly 2.7 billion interactions. In the United States, more than 1.9 billion SMS messages are anticipated, while RCS volumes are predicted to surge to over 57 million, a substantial increase from 2024. WhatsApp engagement is also expected to be up 44%, and email volumes are set to rise more than 50% on Cyber Monday.
Regarding consumer spending, US consumers surveyed by Infobip plan to spend mainly between $250 and $1,000 on Black Friday. Across Europe, RCS volumes are projected to grow more than sixfold on Black Friday and fivefold on Cyber Monday, with WhatsApp nearly tripling. Email usage is expected to surge over 50%, supported by a 37% increase in SMS on Black Friday. UK consumers largely plan Black Friday spending under £250, though many are willing to spend up to £1,000, indicating strong retail engagement. Similarly, consumers in Italy, Spain, and Germany generally plan moderate spending between €250 and €500, reinforcing a healthy but cautious retail outlook.
Email is expected to remain the dominant channel for promotions and confirmations in Europe, with Southern European markets favoring SMS, and Northern European markets showing increasing openness to richer chat formats. Ben Lewis, Vice President of Marketing & Growth at Infobip, noted, “Black Friday and Cyber Monday have evolved from single-day events into month-long conversations. With Apple adopting RCS and brands focusing on hyper-personalized experiences, AI-powered conversational commerce is transforming retailer-consumer engagement.”
Infobip’s 2025 forecast underscores the growing impact of omni-channel communication in driving meaningful commerce.
