A new report from Cotality, a global property data and analytics provider, indicates that over 2.6 million homes in the Western United States, with a combined reconstruction cost value of $1.3 trillion, face moderate or greater wildfire risk.
The 2025 Cotality Wildfire Risk Report: Priced Out & Burned Out, highlights that more than one million of these homes are at very high risk. Tom Larsen, Cotality’s AVP of Product Marketing for Insurance Solutions, stated that wildfires are a growing threat and understanding the level of risk can help homeowners and insurers take preventative actions to protect properties and lives.
Nearly half of the at-risk homes (1.3 million) are located in California, with Colorado (319,000), Texas (243,000), Oregon (128,000), and Arizona (124,000) also showing significant numbers. These states contain numerous homes in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), areas adjacent to forested or undeveloped land, which face elevated risk.
Larsen also noted that contributing factors to the increasing threat include building locations and methods, emphasizing the need for construction practices that consider wildfire risks and mitigation measures for existing structures. While California contains eight of the top 15 metro areas with the highest wildfire risk, other metros like Austin, Denver, and Colorado Springs are also experiencing increasing risks.
Wildfire behavior is evolving due to factors such as fuel accumulation from decades of fire suppression, population growth leading to expanded development into the WUI, and longer, drier seasons. The report analyzed the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025, which began as conventional wildfires but transitioned into wildfire-induced conflagrations as the fuel shifted from vegetation to built environments like homes and businesses. This shift dramatically alters fire spread and magnifies potential destruction. Since 2020, wildfire-induced conflagrations have destroyed over 26,000 structures across the country.
